23
Jan 12

Who Will Pay For The New Proposed Mortgage Meltdown Settlement

From Naked Capitalism:

… previous leaks have indicated that the bulk of the supposed settlement would come not in actual monies paid by the banks (the cash portion has been rumored at under $5 billion) but in credits given for mortgage modifications for principal modifications. There are numerous reasons why that stinks. The biggest is that servicers will be able to count modifying first mortgages that were securitized toward the total. Since one of the cardinal rules of finance is to use other people’s money rather than your own, this provision virtually guarantees that investor-owned mortgages will be the ones to be restructured. Why is this a bad idea? The banks are NOT required to write down the second mortgages that they have on their books. This reverses the contractual hierarchy that junior lienholders take losses before senior lenders. So this deal amounts to a transfer from pension funds and other fixed income investors to the banks, at the Administration’s instigation. (Emphasis added)

Another reason the modification provision is poorly structured is that the banks are given a dollar target to hit. That means they will focus on modifying the biggest mortgages. So help will go to a comparatively small number of grossly overhoused borrowers, no doubt reinforcing the “profligate borrower” meme.

But those criticisms assume two other things: that the program is actually implemented. The experience with past consent decrees in the mortgage space is that the servicers get a legal get out of jail free card, a release, and do not hold up their end of the deal. Similarly, we’ve seen bank executives swear in front of Congress in late 2010 that they had stopped robosigning, which turned out to be a brazen lie. So here, odds favor that servicers will pretty much do nothing except perhaps be given credit for mortgage modifications they would have made anyhow.

There are two clever features of the deal, but neither look intended to benefit ordinary citizens. One is that the deal throws some funding at chronically cash stressed mortgage counselors. They are thus certain to voice approval of the pact. The other is (per the FT story) the deal’s “most favored nations clause” is designed to reduce the bargaining leverage of any AGs that go their own way. It means that any servicer will have the incentive to fight hard against giving any state a better deal because it will automagically trigger improved terms across the states that signed on to the Federal deal. But this may have interesting perverse effects, since banks that refuse to settle with breakaway AGs will ultimately have damages awarded by a court. That means longer and most costly fights by the states, but in most cases, ultimately bigger awards (frankly, the fact set is so bad that all the state AGs need to do is focus on fairly conservative legal theories to have good odds of scoring big wins).

Yves has been an excellent watchdog on the whole mortgage mess. At this point, we’re still in speculation as there’s no settlement yet, and while the Obama administration has been pressuring individual states to back off prosecution, this is still a developing story.

Stay tuned.


23
Jan 12

UMass Boston Occupied

Read more at the OWS blog.


23
Jan 12

Boycott 2012?

VastLeft, who has offered incisive critiques of the Obama administration in simple one frame comics posted this today:

My pal Terri Lee is promoting a boycott of the 2012 presidential election.

She pitches the idea on Blog Talk Radio, as a guest on the Forward Blitz show.

Me, I’m more inclined to vote for a third-party candidate or a “None of the Above” write-in. Strikes me as a better way to be counted as someone disaffected with the two-party system. But non-voting is arguably as principled a response—or more so—to our ethically bankrupt political system.

I agree that not voting is a bad response to a broken system. When African Americans were not allowed to ride on the front of the bus in the south, they didn’t boycott buses. They rode the buses and they sat where they wanted. The electoral system in the US is deeply broken, and I even concede that as it is formulated does not support third parties. But that’s exactly why I think voting third party is a valid and rational choice. I say kick the cracks in the system until they crumble and we’re forced to build something that better represents the will of the voters.

Note this passage from a Chris Hedges article from last year:

Ralph Nader in a CNN poll a few days before the 2008 presidential election had an estimated 3 percent of the electorate, or about 4 million people, behind his candidacy. But once the votes were counted, his support dwindled to a little over 700,000. Nader believes that many of his supporters entered the polling booth and could not bring themselves to challenge the Democrats and Barack Obama. I suspect Nader is right. And this retreat is another example of the lack of nerve we must overcome if we are going to battle back against the corporate state. A vote for Nader or Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney in 2008 was an act of defiance. A vote for Obama and the Democrats was an act of submission. We cannot afford to be submissive anymore.

Whether you call it voting your conscience or an act of defiance, I think voting for a third party makes a lot of sense. Not voting has no impact.


23
Jan 12

Elizabeth Warren And Scott Brown Agree To Ban Superpac Ads

From Mother Jones:

On Monday morning, Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) and his likely Democratic opponent, Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren, agreed to a pledge banning third-party advertisements in the run-up to November’s election. Groups like the League of Conservation Voters and Rethink PAC (attacking Brown) and Crossroads GPS (attacking Warren) had been waging a proxy war on the airwaves in Massachusetts since last fall, and with the inclusion of third-party ads, the race was expected to wind up in the $100 million range. Last week, Warren and Brown began hashing out a dark-money pledge (while hammering each other on the disagreements in public), and now, the Globe’s Glen Johnson reports, they’ve reached a compromise.

The pledge for both candidates to denounce third-party ads run by supporters, ask TV stations not to air them (which TV stations don’t have to do), and—if the problem persists—Brown proposed that the candidate who benefits from the ads donate 50-percent of the total cost of the ad buy to charity (501(c)(3) political groups, presumably, don’t count).

This is all fine and dandy, but with the current laws, the candidates have zero say in this. They can make a blanket call for third party ads to not be run, but if they were actually to call up third party groups and tell them to not run ads or to pull them, they would be breaking the law.

I agree with the sentiment, but I would feel better if they’d jointly called for a constitutional amendment to roll back Citizens United.


23
Jan 12

Why iPhone Is Assembled In China

From the NYT’s article “How the U.S. Lost Out on iPhone Work“:

But as Steven P. Jobs of Apple spoke, President Obama interrupted with an inquiry of his own: what would it take to make iPhones in the United States?

Not long ago, Apple boasted that its products were made in America. Today, few are. Almost all of the 70 million iPhones, 30 million iPads and 59 million other products Apple sold last year were manufactured overseas.

Why can’t that work come home? Mr. Obama asked.

Mr. Jobs’s reply was unambiguous. “Those jobs aren’t coming back,” he said, according to another dinner guest.

Apple executives say that going overseas, at this point, is their only option. One former executive described how the company relied upon a Chinese factory to revamp iPhone manufacturing just weeks before the device was due on shelves. Apple had redesigned the iPhone’s screen at the last minute, forcing an assembly line overhaul. New screens began arriving at the plant near midnight.

A foreman immediately roused 8,000 workers inside the company’s dormitories, according to the executive. Each employee was given a biscuit and a cup of tea, guided to a workstation and within half an hour started a 12-hour shift fitting glass screens into beveled frames. Within 96 hours, the plant was producing over 10,000 iPhones a day.

“The speed and flexibility is breathtaking,” the executive said. “There’s no American plant that can match that.”

The US will never be able to compete with substance wages and a disempowered class of workers, regardless of which country these workers live in. Historically we’ve competed by not competing against these workers. Through subsidies and tariffs we protected both markets and workers and created the largest middle class the world has ever seen. It’s only because of this enormous middle class with its buying power that we’ve been able to consume products like the iPhone.

The word tariff appears zero times in the NYT article. As long as we accept the fallacy that US labor has to be thrown into a global labor pool that fights over subsistence wages, we’re not going to get anywhere.

More on this from Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism:

The authors fail to tell you what this means: changing a production design that late in the game is bad management, period. It’s the sort of stunt you see in a craft manufacturing business like the movie industry, not in one that deals with factory production. But the flexible near slave Chinese workers bailed out Apple’s ass.

Nor does it frame another section properly. Here Jobs has a more logical, if still daunting demand: he wants a phone with a glass screen that won’t scratch, since phones get shoved in pockets with keys and coins. But part of his ask was still unreasonable: “I want a glass screen, and I want it perfect in six weeks.”

So basically, the Chinese funded a completely non-economical glass R&D facility IN ANTICIPATION of getting the Apple order. There is no way anyone would build a factory like that unless the money was close to free. It already had glass samples in stock! The “some subsidies trickled down” sounds way too innocent. It sounds more like someone recognized the importance of Apple as a marquee customer, and whether the push came from the officialdom or businessmen with the right connections in high places, it doesn’t really matter. This project smells of having serious government backing. How can private businesses anywhere compete with that?


22
Jan 12

Who’s Winning The Democratic Primaries?

Technically there are challengers to Mr. Obama in 2012 for the Democratic ticket. Here’s where we’re at as of Jan 22:

Delegates required to win nomination: 2,778
Unallocated delegates remaining: 2,696

Candidate Delegates
Barack Obama 82
Darcy Richardson 0
Randall Terry 0
John Wolfe 0
Vermin Supreme 0
Ed Cowan 0
Bob Greene 0
Craig Freis 0
John Haywood 0
Robert B. Jordan 0
Bob Ely 0
Cornelius O’Connor 0
Edward O’Donnell 0
Aldous Tyler 0
Warren Mosler 0

Candidates who have withdrawn are shown in grey

The next primary is on January 28th in South Carolina.


22
Jan 12

Who’s Winning the GOP Primaries After South Carolina?

As of today, here’s the delegate counts:

Delegates required to win nomination: 1,144
Unallocated delegates remaining: 2,226

Candidate Delegates
Newt Gingrich 23
Mitt Romney 19
Rick Santorum 13
Ron Paul 3
John Huntsman 2
Buddy Roemer 0
Fred Karger 0
Kathyern Lane 0
Andy Martin 0
Jimmy McMillan 0
Tom Miller 0
Vern Wuensche 0
Matt Snyder 0
Michele Bachmann 0
Herman Cain 0
Thad McCotter 0
Rick Perry 0

Candidates who have withdrawn are shown in grey

A candidate needs 1144 delegates to win the nomination, and there are 2226 delegates left to be allocated. So, as of today, no one is really winning anything.

There are 50 in Florida on January 31st.

Steven Colbert took “fifth place” in South Carolina.

The NYT has a handy page that will let you track this info:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates


21
Jan 12

Green Party Presidential Candidates

Here are the list of declared Green Party candidates for president:

Kent Kent Mesplay
Jill Jill Stein
Harley Harley Mikkelson

Both Jill Stein and Kent Mesplay will be involved in an interactive forum during President Obama’s 2012 State of the Union speech. You can participate here:

When: Tuesday, Jan. 24, 2012 from 9:00 pm until 11:30 pm Eastern Standard Time.
Where: http://www.livestream.com/greenpartyus
Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/events/338640229488962/

Jill Stein will deliver “The People’s State of the Union” on January 25th at 8:30pm eastern time. For information on how to view the address, visit Jill Stein’s campaign website.


21
Jan 12

Who’s Winning The GOP Primaries?

While there’s nonstop pontification on the cable news networks about who is winning and losing the Republican Primary, there’s only one number you really need to understand- delegate count.

As of today, here’s the breakdown:

Mitt Romney: 19
Rick Santorum: 12
Ron Paul: 3
John Huntsman (dropped out): 2
Newt Gingrich: 0
Buddy Roemer: 0

A candidate needs 1144 delegates to win the nomination, and there are 2250 delegates left to be allocated. So, as of today, no one is really winning anything. Romney is indisputably in first place, but he’s got a long way to get to 1144, so anything you hear on TV is merely someone trying to apply an exciting narrative that likely has nothing to do with the reality of the situation.

There are 25 delegates up for grab in South Carolina today and 50 in Florida on January 31st.

The NYT has a handy page that will let you track this info:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates


23
Dec 11

Obama Administration Refuses To Prosecute Bankers

From Reuters:

The federal government, as has been widely noted, has pressed few criminal cases against major lenders or senior executives for the events that led to the meltdown of 2007. Finding hard evidence has proved difficult, the Justice Department has said.

The government also hasn’t brought any prosecutions for dubious foreclosure practices deployed since 2007 by big banks and other mortgage-servicing companies.

Foreclosure-related case files in just one New York federal bankruptcy court, for example, hold at least a dozen mortgage documents known as promissory notes bearing evidence of recently forged signatures and illegal alterations, according to a judge’s rulings and records reviewed by Reuters. Similarly altered notes have appeared in courts around the country.

Banks in the past two years have foreclosed on the houses of thousands of active-duty U.S. soldiers who are legally eligible to have foreclosures halted. Refusing to grant foreclosure stays is a misdemeanor under federal law.

The U.S. Treasury confirmed in November that it is conducting a civil investigation of 4,500 such foreclosures. Attorneys representing service members estimate banks have foreclosed on up to 30,000 military personnel in potential violation of the law.

In Alabama, a federal bankruptcy judge ruled last month that Wells Fargo & Co. had filed at least 630 sworn affidavits containing false “facts,” including claims that homeowners were in arrears for amounts not yet due.

Wells Fargo “took the law into its own hands” and disregarded laws banning perjury, Judge Margaret A. Mahoney declared.

And in thousands of cases, documents required to transfer ownership of mortgages have been falsified. Lacking originals needed to foreclose, mortgage servicers drew up new ones, falsely signed by their own staff as employees of the original lenders – many of which no longer exist.

But the mortgage-foreclosure mess has yet to yield any federal prosecution against the big banks that are the major servicers of home loans.

More from Yves Smith:

As readers of this blog know, this isn’t close to a complete list. You can add foreclosing on homes where there is no mortgage, foreclosing on burned-down homes where the insurer has made payment in full, mortgage baits and switches at closings and telling borrowers they had to default to be eligible for HAMP. The only bit of good news is there is a LPS investigation underway, but it has been ongoing since 2009. Funny how Catherine Masto in the comparatively small Nevada attorney general’s office has made more progress from an at the earliest October 2010 start date.

And we still have the banking industry repeating its mantra: everyone who lost his home was delinquent. Yes, in a kangaroo court, the accused will always lose. But the Washington Post runs this sort of propaganda in a woefully ignorant op-ed arguing in favor of the less than 50 state attorney general settlement, based on the false premises that a deal will lead to meaningful principal mods and that the lack of a deal (as opposed to pervasive abuses that are also keeping investors away from private label paper) is the source of the dreaded “uncertainty” and hence must be eliminated. (Adam Levitin has already admirably dispatched the reasoning, such as it is, that underlies this op ed, which is a rehash of tired arguments).

Notice the Reuters article doesn’t even get to frauds on investors: double dipping (charing both investors and borrowers for the same fee), misrepresentations to investors (false certifications by trustees and servicers that they held the collateral in good order, Section 11 Securities Act by making representations about loan quality when they never reviewed the loans), and other abuses (such as reporting foreclosed properties being sold months after the fact to allow them to collect additional servicing fees).